Assign probabilities to output in Python?

Question

There are two teams in a soccer match. Team A has a 70 % probability of winning, a draw is 25 %, team B has a 5 % of the winning. How can you derive a score (e.g. 1:0) based on these probabilities? Assume that the goals are a random integer between 1 and 5.

Answer 1

I tried a bit different approach, take a look:
https://code.sololearn.com/c9m4le17wggx/?ref=app

Answer 2

It would depends on how many times you want to roll the dice in a specific match. 😉

The problem a little bit vague as you can always assign the winning team with any score as long as it's at least one more than the opposing team.

Answer 3

tamaslud It is because the odds provided in the task concerned the ultimate result only. It is not the chance of striking a goal in a match, but of winning the match.

Theoretically, to be 100% correct with the task, we could first determine the winner (or a draw) with the set 0.70/0.05/0.20 probability and then randomly pick the result from all possible ones: (0:0, 1:1, 2:2,... 5:5) for draws, (1:0, 2:0, 3:0,... 5:3, 5:4) for A and (0:1, 0:2,... 3:5, 4:5) for B.

Still, the task is too vague about the match results, to determine whether it is a good approach.

Answer 4

Johannes Thanks! I also felt it as being a more real-life example than going "backwards" from the result to the score :)

Answer 5

Johannes They should hover around 0.70/0.05/0.25, respectively. The task is too vaguely coined to be able to solve it in only one way, as it leaves a lot of space for interpretation :)

Answer 6

i think you also need the probability of a particular amount of goals per match. e.g. 100% is the probability of a draw. it can be either 0:0 or 30:30 if the number of goals are not determinated some way

Answer 7

Kuba Siekierzyński - getting there :) Next step will be determining the odds from relative team strength. It's really a fun project.

https://code.sololearn.com/cjNkd8F0FSVB/?ref=app

Answer 8

It's done! The probability part works :)

https://code.sololearn.com/cjNkd8F0FSVB/?ref=app

Answer 9

Kuba Siekierzyński - this is a very interesting approach. Thanks!

Answer 10

Kuba Siekierzyński - from glancing over it, it seems that the %es of the crown outcomes are also curved around the preset odds. But at what probability, I ask :)

Answer 11

Kuba Siekierzyński in your code it is 0.72/0.12/0.16 but the result is ok. how it happens?

Answer 12

Kuba Siekierzyński -still, I really think your approach is very good and usable. Thanks a lot for all the help and great input!

Answer 13

Kuba Siekierzyński - and I much prefer it to the other, theoretically more correct one. Makes more sense for a soccer game :)